Middle-East and North Africa food dependency through 2050
Summary
The Middle East – North Africa (MENA) region, which is geopolitically complex and highly strategic, is characterized by a high level of dependence on agricultural imports: 40% of its food needs are currently met by imports. Over the last five decades, demographic growth and changes in dietary habits have led to a marked increase in food requirements. Although regional agricultural production has increased substantially over the same period, it has been unable to keep pace with the increase in demand, partly because of soil and climate constraints and also because of limitations in terms of agricultural policy. Regional dependence on agricultural imports is likely to continue to escalate in the foreseeable future, as a result of ongoing demographic expansion and changes in eating habits as well as of climate change impacts in a region recognized as a climate “hot spot”. Agricultural imports place a significant burden on state budgets, and agri-food policies in the region continue to struggle with urban and rural poverty. In this situation, it is important to understand which factors within the regional agri-food system are most likely to contribute to – or, on the contrary, might help mitigate – a continued increase in agricultural import dependence. In this study, we analyse several scenarios for the region through 2050, taking into account the anticipated effects of climate change. Simulation results suggest that the dependence on agricultural imports is likely to continue to increase in the region, with climate change as a major contributing factor. None of the mechanisms proposed for reducing agricultural import dependence (improved agricultural productivity, moderation of changes in dietary habits, or reduction in waste and losses) is capable of fully correcting this trend in the Maghreb, the Middle East, or the Near East.
Middle East and North Africa food import dependency through 2050: Method
Scenario building
Following a process similar to a prospective approach, a working group bringing together scientific experts (agronomists, economists and political scientists) and French stakeholders was formed. This working group supported the study with advice and opinions, interpretation of past trends, construction of hypotheses for alternative trend scenarios and analysis of results (see Contributors).
In a first step, a thorough analysis of the current situation and its evolution over the past 50 years made it possible for us to examine the determinants that strengthened the food import dependency of the MENA region and its 5 sub-regions.
Based on this retrospective analysis, a series of scenarios were defined. These scenarios combine alternative hypotheses of change up to 2050 of the main drivers that were detected in the retrospective analysis, i.e., population, diets, crop yields, livestock efficiencies, cultivable areas. The two first scenarios are reference scenarios. The first one (REF1) assumes that current trends continue in the MENA region up to 2050. The second one (REF2) adopts the same hypotheses but a more severe climate warming assumption, affecting crop yields and cultivable areas. The remaining scenarios start with REF2 but change alternatively one driver at a time. The scenario HPOP is the REF2 with an alternative hypothesis for MENA’s population growth: the UN medium projection is replaced by the UN highest projection. The scenarios WEST and MED replace the trend diets of REF2 by, respectively, Western-type diets and Mediterranean-type diets. The scenario TECH assumes a faster technical progress in agricultural production (resulting in +20% increase in crop yields and +20% decrease in the livestock input/output coefficients relative to the REF2 scenario). Finally the LOSS scenario involves a reduction by half wastes and losses at the production and consumption level of agricultural and food products.
Scenario simulation
For simulating scenarios, the GlobAgri platform was used to develop a dedicated database and specific version of the biomass balance model (named GlobAgri-MENA). The database and the model include 36 agri-food products and 5 forage products, and divided the world into 17 broad regions, whereof 5 MENA sub-regions (see definitions). The reference year (named “2008”) is the 2007-2009 average and the simulation horizon is 2050.
Selecting above tabs, you can explore assumptions and results produced by the GlobAgri-MENA model developed by INRAE and CIRAD. The map below presents the composition, population and food dependency of the 5 MENA sub-regions covered by this study.
Population (millions inhabitants) and food dependency (dependence on imports: percentage of kilocalories consumed that are supplied by food imports), 2011.
Source: INRAE / CIRAD
For each input variable of the model (population, diets, crop yield, feed efficiency and cultivable area), the graph shows the state of the variable in “2008” and its projection in 2050 for the 5 MENA sub-regions, according to the assumptions made for the different scenarios. This visualization allows you to compare the regional situations in “2008” or in 2050 for each scenario.
Population
Diets
Cultivable_Area
Yield
Feed_Efficiency
All Products
Animal Products
Vegetal Products
Oil Products
Soy
Graph title (please don't delete)
Legend items
| Aquatic animal | Freshwater, demersal, pelagic and other marine fish; crustaceans, cephalopods and other molluscs; meat aquatic mammals and other aquatic animals |
| Aquatic feed | (Definition ?) |
| Bovine | Bovine meat |
| Small ruminant | Sheep and goats meat |
| Pork | Pork meat |
| Poultry | Poultry meat |
| Poultry (other) | (Definition ?) |
| Eggs | Eggs |
| Dairy | Dairy products |
| Grass | Permanent meadows and pastures |
| Grass-like forage | Temporary meadows and pastures (mixed grass and ray-grass) |
| Other forages | Cultivated forages (alfalfa, beets, legumes, maize, etc.). |
| Fibers | Jute, jute-like fibres, soft-fibres other, sisal, abaca, hard fibres other, tobacco, rubber and seed cotton |
| Roots and Tuber | Potatoes, cassava, sweet potatoes, yams and other roots |
| Fruits & vegetables | Tomatoes, onions, vegetables other, oranges, mandarines, lemons, limes, grapefruit, citrus other, bananas, plantains, apples, pineapples, dates, grapes and other fruits |
| Maize | Maize |
| Wheat | Wheat |
| Rice | Rice, paddy equivalent |
| Other cereals | Barley, rye, oats, millet, sorghum and other cereals |
| Pulses | Beans, peas and other pulses |
| Soyabeans | Soyabeans |
| Soyabean Cake | Soyabean cake |
| Soyabean Oil | Soyabean oil |
| Sunflowerseed | Sunflowerseed |
| Sunflowerseed Cake | Sunflowerseed cake |
| Sunflowerseed Oil | Sunflowerseed oil |
| Rape and Mustardseed | Rape and mustardseed |
| Rape and Mustard Cake | Rape and mustard cake |
| Rape and Mustard Oil | Rape and mustard oil |
| Other Oilcrops | Groundnuts (shelled eq), coconuts – incl copra, sesameseed, olives and other oilcrops |
| Cake Other Oilcrops | Other oilcrops cake |
| Oil Other Oilcrops | Other oilcrops oil |
| Oilpalm fruit | Oilpalm fruit |
| Palmkernel Cake | Palm kernel cake |
| Palm Products Oil | Palm oil and palmkernel oil |
| Sugar | Sugar cane, sugar beet (sugar in equivalent sugar cane and beet) |
| Other plant products | Nuts, coffee, cocoa beans, tea, pepper, pimento, cloves, spices, other |
| Crop residues | (Definition ?) |
| Other products | Meat other, offals edible, fats animals raw, honey, meat meal, aquatic plants |
| Occasional | (Definition ?) |
Population (millions inhabitants) and food dependency (dependence on imports: percentage of kilocalories consumed that are supplied by food imports), 2011.
Source: INRAE / CIRAD
Definitions
In addition to the initial situation (Y2008 or “2008”, average 2007-2009), 2 trend scenarios scenarios have been built (REF1 and REF2). The 4 other scenarios correspond to the reference 2 scenario where one assumption has been changed.
| Y2008 | 2008 (initial situation) |
| REF1 | Reference Scenario 1 |
| REF2 | Reference Scenario 2 |
| HPOP | REF2 scenario with High population growth |
| WEST | REF2 scenario with Westernization of diets |
| TECH | REF2 scenario with Technical Progress |
| MED | REF2 scenario with Mediterranean Diet |
| LOSS | REF2 scenario with Reduced Waste & Loss |
GlobAgri-MENA divides into 17 broad regions, including 5 MENA sub-regions and 12 non-MENA regions.
| EGY | Egypt |
| MA | Maghreb |
| ME | Middle East |
| NE | Near East |
| TUR | Turkey |
The model establishes a balance (in tonnes) for 36 agri-food products and 5 forage products. Considered products are reported below
| Aquatic animal | Freshwater, demersal, pelagic and other marine fish; crustaceans, cephalopods and other molluscs; meat aquatic mammals and other aquatic animals |
| Bovine | Bovine meat |
| Small ruminant | Sheep and goats meat |
| Pork | Pork meat |
| Poultry | Poultry meat |
| Eggs | Eggs |
| Dairy | Dairy products |
| Grass | Permanent meadows and pastures |
| Grass-like forage | Temporary meadows and pastures (mixed grass and ray-grass) |
| Other forages | Cultivated forages (alfalfa, beets, legumes, maize, etc.). |
| Fibers | Jute, jute-like fibres, soft-fibres other, sisal, abaca, hard fibres other, tobacco and rubber |
| Roots and Tuber | Potatoes, cassava, sweet potatoes, yams and other roots |
| Fruits & vegetables | Tomatoes, onions, vegetables other, oranges, mandarines, lemons, limes, grapefruit, citrus other, bananas, plantains, apples, pineapples, dates, grapes and other fruits |
| Maize | Maize |
| Wheat | Wheat |
| Rice | Rice, paddy equivalent |
| Other cereals | Barley, rye, oats, millet, sorghum and other cereals |
| Pulses | Beans, peas and other pulses |
| Soyabeans | Soyabeans |
| Soyabean Cake | Soyabean cake |
| Soyabean Oil | Soyabean oil |
| Sunflowerseed | Sunflowerseed |
| Sunflowerseed Cake | Sunflowerseed cake |
| Sunflowerseed Oil | Sunflowerseed oil |
| Rape and Mustardseed | Rape and mustardseed |
| Rape and Mustard Cake | Rape and mustard cake |
| Rape and Mustard Oil | Rape and mustard oil |
| Other Oilcrops | Groundnuts (shelled eq), coconuts – incl copra, sesameseed and other oilcrops |
| Cake Other Oilcrops | Other oilcrops cake |
| Oil Other Oilcrops | Other oilcrops oil |
| Oilpalm fruit | Oilpalm fruit |
| Palmkernel Cake | Palm kernel cake |
| Palm Products Oil | Palm oil and palmkernel oil |
| Sugar | Sugar cane, sugar beet (sugar in equivalent sugar cane and beet) |
| Other plant products | Nuts, coffee, cocoa beans, tea, pepper, pimento, cloves, spices, other |
| Crop residues | Stover |
| Other products | Meat other, offals edible, fats animals raw, honey, meat meal, aquatic plants |
| Occasional | Food leftovers, cut-and-carry, forages and legumes, roadside grasses |
Key finding
MENA region is highly dependant on food imports
In addition to the political conflicts and tensions affecting the area, the MENA region is characterized by both a high percentage of arid and semi-arid lands with low agricultural productivity, and a rapid demographic expansion with a population that has increased from 139 million in 1961 to 496 million in 201. As a result of both factors, the agricultural import dependency of the MENA region has increased dramatically during the last decades, from 10% in 1961 to 40% in 2011.
The food import dependency of the MENA region will continue to increase up to 2050
If the agricultural and food system of the MENA region as well as the domestic population continue to evolve according to current trends (REF1), the net food import dependency ratio of the region would rise from 39% in 2008 to 45% in 2050. The most strongly affected sub-regions would be the Near East, the Middle East and Egypt. The Maghreb would be able to reduce its dependence on imports while Turkey would become a net exporter.
Climate change is likely to accelerate the rise of the MENA’s food import dependency
Considering the most severe IPCC climate change scenario (RCP 8.5) (REF2), the net food import dependency of the MENA region could reach 50% by 2050. The Maghreb would be particularly affected, losing nearly half of its cultivable land and becoming dependent on imports for almost 70% of its needs in food and agricultural products. At reverse, Turkey could benefit with a 15% increase in its cultivable land and a strengthening of its net exporter position.
Adopting a Mediterranean diet, faster productivity growth in agriculture or reducing waste and loss along the food chain would contribute to decelerate the rise of the MENA’s food import dependency
According to our hypotheses, faster technical progress (TECH) would have the strongest contribution with the MENA’s net import dependency ratio in 2050 decreasing from 50% under REF2 to nearly its 2008 level 39%. Reducing waste and loss (LOSS) could help the MENA region to limit the rise of its food import dependency to 41%. While adopting a Mediterranean-type diet (MED) would result in a 42% net import dependency ratio.
But, none of the three options, taken individually, could significantly offset the increased import dependency in the most affected sub-regions
For Maghreb and the Middle East, faster technical progress would be the most favorable, reducing dependency from 69% to 62% and from 64% to 57%, respectively. Reducing waste and loss would be second in terms of impact (import dependency reduced to 64% in Maghreb and 60% in the Middle East). The Mediterranean diet option would have a relatively weak impact. Consequently, for the Maghreb, the Middle East (and the Near East as well), only an integrated policy approach seeking to combine all these options would be effective in mitigating the rise in their food import dependency.
All of these three options would further strengthen Turkey’s position as a net exporter of agricultural products
Whereas Turkey becomes a net exporter in both reference scenarios (REF1 and REF2), faster technical progress (TECH) would enable it to export 40% of its total domestic use. This percentage would be 30% if waste and loss were halved (LOSS) and 28% if a Mediterranean diet was adopted (MED). Thus, Turkey could become a major supplier for the MENA region as a whole.
Authors
Chantal Le Mouël (INRAE, SMART), Pauline Marty (INRAE, DEPE), Stéphane Manceron (INRAE, DEPE), Agneta Forslund (INRAE, SMART), Elodie Marajo-Petitzon (INRAE, SMART), Marc-Antoine Caillaud (INRAE, DEPE), Bertrand Schmitt (INRAE, DEPE).
Contributors
A working group has supported the study with advice and opinions, interpretation of past trends, construction of hypotheses for alternative trend scenarios and analysis of results. It comprised Sébastien Abis (CIHEAM), Céline Ansart (Unigrains), Pierre Blanc (Sc. Po Bordeaux), Xavier Cassedanne (Crédit Agricole), Roland Cuni (CGB), Jean-Christophe Debar (Pluriagri), Philippe Dusser (Avril), Hervé Guyomard (INRA), Florence Jacquet (INRA), Yves Le Bissonnais (INRA), Martine Padilla (CIHEAM-IAMM), Michel Petit (FARM), Pierre Raye (CGB France) and Gaëlle Regnard (Crédit Agricole).
Partners
INRAE, Pluriagri
1. Pluriagri is an association created by stakeholders in the arable crop industry (Avril, Confédération Générale des Planteurs de Betteraves, Unigrains and Crédit Agricole S.A., to conduct prospective studies on agricultural markets and policies.