European Chemical Pesticide-Free Agriculture in 2050
Is pesticide-free agriculture possible in Europe by 2050?
What conditions are necessary for this transition?
What are the potential impacts of this shift?
Summary
The INRAE foresight “European Chemical Pesticide-Free Agriculture in 2050” explores the conditions for and the impacts of transitioning to pesticide-free farming in Europe. It outlines three scenarios: the Global Market scenario (S1: global and European food value chains based on digital technologies and plant immunity for a pesticide-free food market); the Healthy Microbiomes scenario (S2 : European value chains based on plant holobiont, soil and food microbiomes for a healthy diet); and the Embedded Landscapes scenario (S3: complex and diversified landscapes and regional food value chains for a one-health food system).
For each scenario, pesticide-free cropping systems make use of crop diversification, biocontrol development, the choice of suitable crops and varieties, digital technology and agricultural equipment, and monitoring systems to anticipate the arrival of pests. Achieving this vision requires coherent public policies, stakeholder collaboration across the agricultural value chain, and risk-sharing mechanisms. The study emphasizes that pesticide-free agriculture can help enhance environmental sustainability, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and ensure European food sovereignty, provided multiple coordinated actions are implemented at a European scale.
European Chemical Pesticide-Free Agriculture in 2050
The impacts of chemical pesticides on the environment, including biodiversity, water, air and soil, and on human health, have become a major concern for civil society and consumers. They are also a major issue for the sustainability of agricultural systems. Recently, the Farm to Fork and Biodiversity European strategies set an ambitious target of reducing the use and risks of chemical pesticides by 50% by 2030.
Is it possible, in the mid-term, to withdraw chemical pesticides from agriculture while ensuring a good crop protection? The pesticide reduction target in the Farm to Fork strategy already opened an intense and controversial debate about the feasibility of such a target: some consider that it will have negative impacts on European production and food sovereignty, while others highlight the need to consider, in the impact assessment, changes in agricultural practices, food diets and animal feed imported for livestock.
As chemical pesticides are crucial for conventional agricultural systems, reducing significantly their use to the point of with-drawing them from agriculture is a wicked issue, meaning that there is no simple solution to this problem. With this foresight study, we would like to go one step further in terms of target and horizon by examining the feasibility of an efficient crop protection in a pesticide-free agriculture in Europe in 2050, and how a transition to such agriculture would be achievable.
Under which conditions such transition would be possible? What would be its impacts on production, land use, trade balance, greenhouse gas emissions? To shed light on these issues, this foresight study was conducted as part of the French Priority Research Program (PRP) ‘Growing and Protecting crops Differently’ and in connection with the European Research Alliance ‘Towards a Chemical Pesticide-Free Agriculture’. It proposes three scenarios of chemical pesticide-free agriculture in Europe in 2050 and their transition pathways, the downscaling of the scenarios in four European regions, and the quantitative assessment of their impacts in Europe.
Two main principles guided this foresight study. Firstly, the idea that the limited impacts of past European policies aimed at reducing pesticide use in agriculture raise the need for a paradigm shift from an incremental approach of pesticide reduction to a disruptive approach for building innovative cropping systems without chemical pesticides. Secondly, the idea that cropping systems are strictly embedded in food systems, which needs to be taken into account when building scenarios of chemical pesticide-free agriculture. This foresight study implemented a systemic approach, considering that the transition to chemical pesticide-free agriculture would require a simultaneous transformation of different components of the food systems.
Selecting above tabs, you can explore assumptions and results produced by the GlobAgri-AESP2050 model for the 21 regions and the simulated scenarios.
Population in million persons and agricultural land area in million hectares. Source: from FAOSTAT 2017.
The above map presents the composition, population and agricultural areas of the eight European regions covered by this study. The other 13 regions in this study are Canada-USA, Brazil-Argentina, Rest of America, North Africa, West Africa, East-Central-South Africa, Near and Middle East, former USSR, China, India, Rest of Asia, Oceania, and the rest of the world.
A series of simulations was produced using the GlobAgri-AE2050 model. These simulations assess the production capacity, cropland and grassland requirements, and imports and exports in 2050 for each of the 21 world regions analysed. They take into account the impact of climate change on agricultural production and the availability of arable land. Developments in agricultural techniques – including input use, genetic improvement, technological innovations, etc. – and their effects on yield trends are also considered. You can explore here assumptions used in the model.
Population
Diets
Cultivable_Area
Yield
Feed_Efficiency
Population
Diets
Cultivable_Area
Yield
Feed_Efficiency
Population
Diets
Cultivable_Area
Yield
Feed_Efficiency
All Products
Animal Products
Vegetal Products
Oil Products
Soy
Population
Diets
Cultivable_Area
Yield
Feed_Efficiency
Population
Diets
Cultivable_Area
Yield
Feed_Efficiency
Graph area (developper access only)
Legend items
| Aquatic animal | Freshwater, demersal, pelagic and other marine fish; crustaceans, cephalopods and other molluscs; meat aquatic mammals and other aquatic animals |
| Aquatic feed | (Definition ?) |
| Bovine | Bovine meat |
| Small ruminant | Sheep and goats meat |
| Pork | Pork meat |
| Poultry | Poultry meat |
| Poultry (other) | (Definition ?) |
| Eggs | Eggs |
| Dairy | Dairy products |
| Grass | Permanent meadows and pastures |
| Grass-like forage | Temporary meadows and pastures (mixed grass and ray-grass) |
| Other forages | Cultivated forages (alfalfa, beets, legumes, maize, etc.). |
| Fibers | Jute, jute-like fibres, soft-fibres other, sisal, abaca, hard fibres other, tobacco, rubber and seed cotton |
| Roots and Tuber | Potatoes, cassava, sweet potatoes, yams and other roots |
| Fruits & vegetables | Tomatoes, onions, vegetables other, oranges, mandarines, lemons, limes, grapefruit, citrus other, bananas, plantains, apples, pineapples, dates, grapes and other fruits |
| Maize | Maize |
| Wheat | Wheat |
| Rice | Rice, paddy equivalent |
| Other cereals | Barley, rye, oats, millet, sorghum and other cereals |
| Pulses | Beans, peas and other pulses |
| Soyabeans | Soyabeans |
| Soyabean Cake | Soyabean cake |
| Soyabean Oil | Soyabean oil |
| Sunflowerseed | Sunflowerseed |
| Sunflowerseed Cake | Sunflowerseed cake |
| Sunflowerseed Oil | Sunflowerseed oil |
| Rape and Mustardseed | Rape and mustardseed |
| Rape and Mustard Cake | Rape and mustard cake |
| Rape and Mustard Oil | Rape and mustard oil |
| Other Oilcrops | Groundnuts (shelled eq), coconuts – incl copra, sesameseed, olives and other oilcrops |
| Cake Other Oilcrops | Other oilcrops cake |
| Oil Other Oilcrops | Other oilcrops oil |
| Oilpalm fruit | Oilpalm fruit |
| Palmkernel Cake | Palm kernel cake |
| Palm Products Oil | Palm oil and palmkernel oil |
| Sugar | Sugar cane, sugar beet (sugar in equivalent sugar cane and beet) |
| Other plant products | Nuts, coffee, cocoa beans, tea, pepper, pimento, cloves, spices, other |
| Crop residues | (Definition ?) |
| Other products | Meat other, offals edible, fats animals raw, honey, meat meal, aquatic plants |
| Occasional | (Definition ?) |
(caption)
(note)
Definitions
| Y2010 | 2010 (base year situation) |
| REF | Reference Scenario 2050 [1] |
| S1-lb | S1 X lower-bound yields [1] |
| S2-lb | S2 X lower-bound yields [1] |
| S3-lb | S3 X lower-bound yields [2] |
| S1-ub | S1 X upper-bound yields [1] |
| S2-ub | S2 X upper-bound yields [1] |
| S3-ub | S3 X upper-bound yields [2] |
| S2-ub-RefDiet | S2 with Ref diet X upper-bound yields [1] |
| S3-ub-RefDiet | S3 with Ref diet X upper-bound yields [2] |
| S1-lb-Clexp | S1 X lower-bound yields with cropland expansion [3] |
| S2-lb-Clexp | S2 X lower-bound yields with cropland expansion [3] |
| FR | France |
| DE | Germany |
| UK | United Kingdom |
| PL | Poland |
| S-EU | South Europe |
| E-EU | East Europe |
| C-EU | Central Europe |
| RoEU | Rest of Europe |
| US-CA | Canada/USA |
| BR-AR | Brazil/Argentina |
| RoAm | Rest of America |
| FSU | Former Soviet Union |
| CN | China |
| IN | India |
| RoAs | Rest of Asia |
| N-ME | Near and Middle East |
| N-AF | North Africa |
| W-AF | West Africa |
| ECSA | East, Central and South Africa |
| OCEA | Oceania |
| RoW | Rest of the World |
| EUR | Europe (FR, DE, UK, POL, SEUR, EEUR, CEUR, REUR) |
| WLD | World (including Europe) |
The model establishes a balance (in tonnes) for 33 agri-food products and 5 forage products. Considered products are reported below.
Agri-food products
| Aquatic animal | Freshwater, demersal, pelagic and other marine fish; crustaceans, cephalopods and other molluscs; meat aquatic mammals and other aquatic animals |
| Bovine | Bovine meat |
| Small ruminant | Sheep and goats meat |
| Pork | Pork meat |
| Poultry | Poultry meat |
| Eggs | Eggs |
| Dairy | Dairy products |
| Grass | Permanent meadows and pastures |
| Grass-like forage | Temporary meadows and pastures (mixed grass and ray-grass) |
| Other forages | Cultivated forages (alfalfa, beets, legumes, maize, etc.). |
| Fibers | Jute, jute-like fibres, soft-fibres other, sisal, abaca, hard fibres other, tobacco, rubber and seed cotton |
| Roots and Tuber | Potatoes, cassava, sweet potatoes, yams and other roots |
| Fruits & vegetables | Tomatoes, onions, vegetables other, oranges, mandarines, lemons, limes, grapefruit, citrus other, bananas, plantains, apples, pineapples, dates, grapes and other fruits |
| Maize | Maize |
| Wheat | Wheat |
| Rice | Rice, paddy equivalent |
| Other cereals | Barley, rye, oats, millet, sorghum and other cereals |
| Pulses | Beans, peas and other pulses |
| Soyabeans | Soyabeans |
| Soyabean Cake | Soyabean cake |
| Soyabean Oil | Soyabean oil |
| Sunflowerseed | Sunflowerseed |
| Sunflowerseed Cake | Sunflowerseed cake |
| Sunflowerseed Oil | Sunflowerseed oil |
| Rape and Mustardseed | Rape and mustardseed |
| Rape and Mustard Cake | Rape and mustard cake |
| Rape and Mustard Oil | Rape and mustard oil |
| Other Oilcrops | Groundnuts (shelled eq), coconuts – incl copra, sesameseed, olives and other oilcrops |
| Cake Other Oilcrops | Other oilcrops cake |
| Oil Other Oilcrops | Other oilcrops oil |
| Oilpalm fruit | Oilpalm fruit |
| Palmkernel Cake | Palm kernel cake |
| Palm Products Oil | Palm oil and palmkernel oil |
| Sugar | Sugar cane, sugar beet (sugar in equivalent sugar cane and beet) |
| Other plant products | Nuts, coffee, cocoa beans, tea, pepper, pimento, cloves, spices, other |
| Crop residues | Stover |
| Other products | Meat other, offals edible, fats animals raw, honey, meat meal, aquatic plants |
| Occasional | Food leftovers, cut-and-carry, forages and legumes, roadside grasses |
Forage products
| Forage products | Grass, Grass-like forages, Other forages, Crop residues, Occasional |
Key findings
3 chemical pesticide-free crop protection strategies in 2050
- Strengthening the immunity of cultivated plants: directly by using plant defence stimulators, biostimulants and through plant breeding; indirectly through interactions with microbiota, other crops and plant services.
- Managing the crop holobiont by strengthening host microbiota interactions: by strengthening the adaptability of the holobiont and the functions of microbiota by modulating the existing microbiome in a systemic, integrative and historical way; and by redesigning the holobiont through inoculations of microorganisms and plant breeding.
- Designing complex and diversified landscapes adapted to local contexts and their evolution: by increasing biodiversity and agrobiodiversity from the landscape to the field level, and over space and time, and through plant breeding; and by building on a complex landscape with a changeable mosaic of diversified cropping systems embedded in a stable matrix of natural and semi-natural habitats.
3 scenarios of chemical pesticide-free agriculture in Europe in 2050 and their transition pathway
Three scenarios envisioning chemical pesticide-free agriculture in Europe by 2050 and their transition pathways were developed:
- Global market (S1) explores the development of robotics and bio-inputs to reinforce plant immunity and the associated changes in global food chains to develop a food market without chemical pesticides.
- Healthy microbiomes (S2) explores the mobilisation of plant holobionts and soil and food microbiomes for European value chains leading to healthy diets.
- Embedded landscapes for one health (S3) explores the redesign of complex and diverse landscapes and the development of regional value chains leading to healthy and sustainable diets.
Each scenario outlines distinct pathways for reducing dependency on chemical pesticides while maintaining productive and sustainable food systems in Europe.
4 case-studies in 4 European regions
The foresight study explored transitions through four regional case studies, which aim at building in a specific sector and region, transition pathways towards chemical pesticide-free agriculture, by downscaling the generic scenarios:
In Tuscany (Italy), durum wheat production systems illustrate technological innovations under a “Global Market” scenario (S1), using resistant varieties and precision farming. In Romania, irrigated vegetable production adopts biocontrol and water-saving techniques, fitting the “Healthy Microbiomes” scenario (S2). In Finland, cereal and oilseed systems focus on diversified landscapes and semi-natural areas, embodying the “Embedded Landscapes” approach (S3). Finally, French vineyards (Bergerac-Duras) transition towards agroecological practices and localized production under the “Embedded Landscapes” framework (S3).
These case studies showcase diverse agricultural contexts and concrete pathways build collectively with local actors and stakeholders for achieving pesticide-free farming by 2050, while addressing climate resilience, biodiversity protection, and food security.
Scenarios S2 and S3 are compatible with Europe’s food sovereignty
Scenarios have contrasting impacts on European agricultural production. Compared with 2010, European domestic production in calories varies from -5% to +12% in 2050, depending on scenarios and retained assumption on crop yields (lower-bound, lb, or upper-bound, ub, yields, see Assumptions).
A transition towards chemical pesticide-free agriculture in Europe in 2050 could be possible without transforming the European food diets, but to the detriment of European exports (S1).
If Europe would wish to keep its export position
on world markets, higher yields or expansion of croplands would be necessary.
The adoption of healthy diets (S2) or of healthy and more environmental- friendly diets (S3) would give Europe some room to balance domestic resources and uses while becoming a net exporter of calories in 2050.
The three scenarios would contribute to decrease European agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and to increase carbon storage in soils and biomass
Under the lower-bound yield assumption, the three scenarios induce a decrease in agricultural GHG emissions in 2050 compared to 2010: from -8% in S1 to -20% in S2 and -37% in S3.
With the upper-bound yield assumption, the decrease in agricultural GHG emissions is lower in all three scenarios. Furthermore, compared to 2010, the three scenarios lead to a decrease in land-use change emissions in Europe, which reinforces the capacity of Europe to store carbon throughout the projection period, from 9 million tons CO2 equivalent per year in S1, to 17 million tons in S2 and up to 43 million tons in S3.
In all the scenarios, strong and coordinated measures are required for a successful transition
Analysing the pathways built for each of the three European scenarios, some robust elements of a transition emerge, which are common milestones and actions:
- Commitment from consumers, citizens and inhabitants, who have a key role to play.
- Articulation of regulatory policies for reducing and banning chemical pesticides, public policies for supporting farmers in the transition, with a redesign of the Common Agricultural Policy, and food policies to support transition to healthy diets.
- New trade agreements and new production standards allowing the development of pesticide-free markets.
- Mechanisms for sharing the risks among the different actors involved in the value chain.
- Agricultural, knowledge and innovation systems for knowledge creation and co-conception, with farmers, of chemical pesticide-free cropping systems.
Authors
Olivier Mora (1) , Jeanne-Alix Berne (1) , Jean-Louis Drouet (2) , Chantal Le Mouël (3) , Claire Meunier (1) , Agneta Forslund (3) , Victor Kieffer (3) , Lise Paresys (1)
1 INRAE, DEPE – Direction de l’Expertise scientifique collective, de la Prospective et des Etudes, Paris
2 INRAE, ECOSYS – Ecologie fonctionnelle et écotoxicologie des agroécosystèmes, Paris-Saclay
3 INRAE, SMART – Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires, Rennes
Contributors
The foresight study “European Chemical Pesticide-Free Agriculture in 2050” was conducted by a team of experts from INRAE (Institut national de recherche pour l’agriculture, l’alimentation et l’environnement).
Several experts groups have been involved in this project, in addition to the experts interviewed individually:
- a European expert committee (Sari AUTIO, Paolo BARBERI, Pascal BERGERET, Oana BUJOR-NENITA, Stefano CARLESI, Henriette CHRISTENSEN, Roxana CICEOI, Jean-Philippe DEGUINE, Jérôme ENJALBERT, Gina FINTINERU, Laurent HUBER, Philippe JEANNERET, Steffen KOLB, Claire LAMINE, Guillaume MARTIN, Antoine MESSÉAN, Aline MOSNIER, Savine OUSTRAIN, Emmanuelle PORCHER, Yann RAINEAU, Elin RÖÖS) ;
- thematic groups on crop protection, cropping systems and agricultural equipment; a quantification group; a group on European transition and four regional groups on regional transition pathways; and a group of researchers from the French Priority Research Program “Growing and Protecting crops Differently”.
All the experts who have contributed to this foresight are listed in the final report Mora et al. (2023).
Partners
French Priority Research Program (PRP) ‘Growing and Protecting crops Differently’ (https://www.cultiver-proteger-autrement.fr/eng)
INRAE